Populations at Risk of Malaria
On this page the estimated populations at risk of malaria are summarized in table format.
This information is the same as that provided in the Population module of the MARA LITe, but in less detail.
The various MARA malaria distribution models are combined with a population distribution map to estimate the number of people living at risk of malaria.
To calculate the population for a particular age group:
Total Population 1990 * Proportion in age group
eg: Angola, 0 to 4 year olds in 1990 =
9,228,175 * 0.19838 = 1,830,685
To calculate the projected population for a particular year:
Total Population 1990 * exp( [year-1990] * Annual Exponential Growth Rate )
eg: Angola total population in 2004 =
9,228,175 * exp(14*0.03343) = 14,735,821
To calculate the population at risk of malaria for a particular age group and/or year:
Population at risk for 1990 * Proportion in age group * exp( [Year-1990] * Annual Exponential Growth Rate )
eg: Angola 0 to 4 year olds at high (75% plus) risk of endemic malaria in 2002 =
4,251,686 * 0.19838 * exp(12*0.03343) = 1,259,739
Table 1: Total Populations, Age Groups & Annual Growth Rates
Table 2: Distribution of Endemic Malaria
Table 3: Duration of the Malaria Transmission Season
Table 4: Malaria Prevalence in West Africa
|
Country |
Total Population 1990 |
Proportion 0 to 4 |
Proportion 5 to 9 |
Proportion 10 to 14 |
Proportion 15 plus |
Annual Exponential Growth Rate* |
|
Angola |
9,228,175 |
0.19838 |
0.15440 |
0.12416 |
0.52306 |
0.03343 |
|
Benin |
4,657,436 |
0.18648 |
0.16149 |
0.13638 |
0.51565 |
0.02664 |
|
Botswana |
1,265,352 |
0.16134 |
0.14330 |
0.12955 |
0.56580 |
0.02469 |
|
Burkina Faso |
9,045,011 |
0.19140 |
0.15484 |
0.12848 |
0.52528 |
0.02762 |
|
Burundi |
5,476,212 |
0.18382 |
0.15433 |
0.12762 |
0.53424 |
0.02078 |
|
Cameroon |
11,142,398 |
0.17186 |
0.14486 |
0.12554 |
0.55775 |
0.02762 |
|
Central African Republic |
2,925,970 |
0.16174 |
0.14109 |
0.11887 |
0.57830 |
0.02078 |
|
Chad |
5,564,511 |
0.17384 |
0.14193 |
0.11997 |
0.56425 |
0.02859 |
|
Congo |
2,226,851 |
0.18465 |
0.14913 |
0.12255 |
0.54368 |
0.02859 |
|
Democratic Republic of Congo |
37,372,229 |
0.19481 |
0.15246 |
0.12452 |
0.52822 |
0.03343 |
|
Djibouti |
513,414 |
0.15639 |
0.13642 |
0.11842 |
0.58877 |
0.02176 |
|
Equatorial Guinea |
352,000 |
0.17434 |
0.14115 |
0.11662 |
0.56789 |
0.02567 |
|
Eritrea |
2,851,679 |
0.17522 |
0.14626 |
0.11911 |
0.55942 |
0.02762 |
|
Ethiopia |
48,103,167 |
0.19264 |
0.14959 |
0.11933 |
0.53844 |
0.02664 |
|
Gabon |
935,000 |
0.14928 |
0.12754 |
0.10368 |
0.61950 |
0.02762 |
|
Gambia |
921,000 |
0.16655 |
0.13408 |
0.11025 |
0.58913 |
0.03537 |
|
Ghana |
15,003,180 |
0.16937 |
0.15130 |
0.12798 |
0.55136 |
0.02956 |
|
Guinea |
5,679,083 |
0.19520 |
0.15160 |
0.12427 |
0.52893 |
0.02762 |
|
Guinea Bissau |
963,453 |
0.16658 |
0.13637 |
0.11609 |
0.58096 |
0.02176 |
|
Ivory Coast |
11,634,908 |
0.16198 |
0.15205 |
0.13381 |
0.55216 |
0.02469 |
|
Kenya |
23,468,259 |
0.16108 |
0.16006 |
0.13909 |
0.53978 |
0.02567 |
|
Liberia |
2,575,000 |
0.13803 |
0.15305 |
0.13265 |
0.57627 |
0.01390 |
|
Madagascar |
12,642,000 |
0.18165 |
0.15755 |
0.12904 |
0.53177 |
0.03150 |
|
Malawi |
9,160,377 |
0.19107 |
0.15179 |
0.12583 |
0.53131 |
0.01489 |
|
Mali |
9,209,586 |
0.19739 |
0.15305 |
0.12388 |
0.52568 |
0.02372 |
|
Mauritania |
1,995,518 |
0.16362 |
0.13755 |
0.13003 |
0.56881 |
0.02762 |
|
Mocambique |
14,172,274 |
0.18052 |
0.14665 |
0.12177 |
0.55106 |
0.03440 |
|
Namibia |
1,376,186 |
0.16114 |
0.14078 |
0.12136 |
0.57672 |
0.02567 |
|
Niger |
7,731,000 |
0.20425 |
0.15425 |
0.12543 |
0.51607 |
0.03247 |
|
Nigeria |
96,154,004 |
0.18448 |
0.14799 |
0.12326 |
0.54427 |
0.02469 |
|
Rwanda |
6,954,000 |
0.17753 |
0.15323 |
0.13569 |
0.53354 |
0.00399 |
|
SaoTome Principe |
119,000 |
0.18770 |
0.14980 |
0.12370 |
0.53880 |
0.00220 |
|
Senegal |
7,327,000 |
0.17340 |
0.14670 |
0.12553 |
0.55437 |
0.02567 |
|
Sierra Leone |
3,997,000 |
0.17866 |
0.14341 |
0.11871 |
0.55922 |
0.01882 |
|
Somalia |
8,622,495 |
0.19695 |
0.15317 |
0.12475 |
0.52513 |
0.02469 |
|
South Africa |
36,975,075 |
0.13656 |
0.12215 |
0.11412 |
0.62717 |
0.01784 |
|
Sudan |
24,061,678 |
0.14705 |
0.13210 |
0.13175 |
0.58910 |
0.01980 |
|
Swaziland |
740,373 |
0.16444 |
0.13901 |
0.12722 |
0.56933 |
0.02956 |
|
Tanzania |
25,376,052 |
0.17910 |
0.15183 |
0.12846 |
0.54061 |
0.02762 |
|
Togo |
3,524,000 |
0.18364 |
0.15012 |
0.12463 |
0.54161 |
0.02762 |
|
Uganda |
16,592,091 |
0.19962 |
0.15580 |
0.13023 |
0.51435 |
0.02762 |
|
Zambia |
7,323,703 |
0.18063 |
0.15879 |
0.14179 |
0.51879 |
0.02372 |
|
Zimbabwe |
9,854,805 |
0.17206 |
0.14356 |
0.12751 |
0.55686 |
0.01686 |
* From WHO Health Report 2000
This table contains estimated total populations at various levels of risk of endemic malaria for the year 1990.
For more information on this malaria distribution model click here.
|
Country |
Climate <25% suitable (malaria epidemic or absent) |
Climate 25 to 75% suitable (malaria marginal or strongly seasonal) |
Climate >75% suitable (malaria endemic; perennial or seasonal) |
|
Angola |
1,201,578 |
3,774,911 |
4,251,686 |
|
Benin |
0 |
0 |
4,657,436 |
|
Botswana |
809,342 |
289,637 |
166,374 |
|
Burkina Faso |
0 |
0 |
9,045,011 |
|
Burundi |
2,050,670 |
2,296,580 |
1,128,962 |
|
Cameroon |
819,176 |
2,094,358 |
8,228,864 |
|
Central African Republic |
0 |
1,947 |
2,924,023 |
|
Chad |
258,582 |
506,768 |
4,799,161 |
|
Congo |
0 |
2,906 |
2,223,945 |
|
Democratic Republic of Congo |
3,371,389 |
2,368,927 |
31,631,913 |
|
Djibouti |
508,596 |
4,554 |
263 |
|
Equatorial Guinea |
7,024 |
2,115 |
342,861 |
|
Eritrea |
351,209 |
2,047,355 |
453,116 |
|
Ethiopia |
30,993,079 |
10,601,558 |
6,508,530 |
|
Gabon |
32,826 |
41 |
902,133 |
|
Gambia |
0 |
0 |
921,000 |
|
Ghana |
0 |
248,912 |
14,754,268 |
|
Guinea |
3,724 |
40,155 |
5,635,203 |
|
Guinea Bissau |
4,610 |
0 |
958,844 |
|
Ivory Coast |
361 |
7,915 |
11,626,632 |
|
Kenya |
12,375,853 |
6,123,901 |
4,968,505 |
|
Liberia |
0 |
869 |
2,574,131 |
|
Madagascar |
1,659,362 |
3,395,846 |
7,586,792 |
|
Malawi |
399,497 |
1,705,285 |